PHOTO CREDIT: CURTIS COMPTON / CCOMPTON@AJC.COM
Over the next few weeks, I’ll be analyzing all 32 teams and telling you why they will or won’t be playing in January.
One of the toughest teams to analyze has to be the Atlanta Falcons. Over the last six years the Falcons have posted just one losing season, with four playoff appearances. However, the Falcons are just 1-4 in the playoffs they were viewed as perennial contenders and a NFC superpower up until this year.
My biggest concern with this team is we don’t know what team is going to show up. We could very easily see the 2008-2012 Falcons who could contend with anyone, or we can see this years version of the team who other than Matt Ryan, couldn’t seem to get anything done.
Offensively the Falcons should be able to score points with a top tier quarterback, and a duo of top receivers. The only thing different this year is who is playing tight end, and can Steven Jackson actually replace Michael Turner after failing to do so last year. The Falcons suffered some major injuries last year in Julio Jones missing more than half of the season and with Roddy White and Jackson being banged up for a decent portion of the year this offense never seemed to get going.
However three skill players were not the biggest difference for this team. Through Ryans career he has never been sacked more than 28 times before 2013 in which he was sacked a whopping 44 times. Their GM Thomas Dimitroff did take action trying to prevent this from happening again by drafted one of the most polished offensive lineman in the draft in Jake Matthews.
During Matthews college career he was forced to block for a sandlot style QB in Johnny Manziel so he should have no problem protecting a less erratic QB in Ryan. I would say realistically the team should be able to lower its sacks allowed to the 25-30 range, If this happens and the all of the talent around Ryan stays upright this team could easily post 24-31 points a game.
However that might not be enough to win more than 8 games if the defense doesn’t improve. After ranking 27th in points allowed a year ago there should not be much optimism for this group. There were some impact rookies last year in Desmond Trufant and Paul Worillow but they are not at the stages of their careers respectively where they can handle carrying a defense.
The Falcons are counting on Tyson Jackson and Paul Soliai to be impact players just months after signing them off the street. The problem with free agency is there is a reason the player is no longer being sought after by their former team, whether it be monetary, attitude or play related. This is why we see year after year players who are projected to be excellent fall flat on their face with horrible seasons. I would be safe by saying if one of these players does not play up to expectations the defensive line for the Falcons will be in the lower tier once again.
All in all I see the Falcons missing the playoffs again this year.. There are far to many question marks with not enough clear answers. I feel a 7-9 to 8-8 season is the best case scenario for a team that suddenly sees itself in transition.
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