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It’s important, by virtue of the NFL’s scheduling and playoff systems, to evaluate the relative difficulty and ultimate strength of your team’s division. As fans around the league know, every win-loss record is not created with equal-you could argue Arizona’s 10-6 was an awful lot more impressive than Philadelphia’s based on the strength of their divisional opponents. I considered these five criteria and ranked each division on a scale of 1-5 on each criterion (except for Categories One and Five) and then totaled up the scores:
Division Winner’s Win Total-The division winner’s win total in the 2013-14 regular season.
Intra-Divisional Parity-How well is talent spread throughout the division?
Overall Quality of Play Relative to Other Divisions-When teams play out of division games, how successful are they?
Competitiveness Across the Division-To what degree do teams in the division field competitive squads that deliver difficult match ups for opponents?
Number of 2013-14 Playoff Teams
A quick note before I begin: I am typically analytically minded but, while my notion of team quality is sufficiently impacted by Brian Burke’s Advanced NFL Analytics site, these ratings are fairly subjective/qualitative.
Rankings
1.NFC WEST (29 pts.)
2.AFC WEST (26.5 pts.)
3.NFC SOUTH (25.5 pts.)
4.AFC NORTH (22.5 pts.)
5.NFC NORTH (22 pts.)
6.AFC EAST (21.5 pts.)
7.NFC EAST (20.75 pts.)
8.AFC SOUTH (17 pts.)
1. NFC WEST
Seattle Seahawks Div. Winner Win Total=13
San Francisco 49ers Intra-Divisional Parity=5
Arizona Cardinals Relative Play Quality=4.5
St. Louis Rams Level of Competitiveness=4.5
Playoff Teams=2
TOTAL: 29
The NFC West is by far the NFL’s best division. Seattle and San Francisco are arguably top three in the NFL while Arizona’s 10-6 season behind Carson Palmer and a better than advertised running game showed the NFL the Cardinals finally found a counterpunch to their prolific defense. St. Louis is, by leaps and bounds, the league’s most talented and competitive bottom dweller.
2. AFC WEST
Denver Broncos Div. Winner Win Total=13
Kansas City Chiefs Intra-Divisional Parity=4
San Diego Chargers Relative Play Quality=2.75
Oakland Raiders Level of Competitiveness=3.75
Playoff Teams:3
TOTAL: 26.5
The AFC West garnered this rating primarily through the high win total of the Denver Broncos and the three playoff teams the division fielded. Talent is spread fairly well throughout the division though Brian Burke’s numbers were not particularly favorable to KC and San Diego. Oakland’s lack of consistency keeps the relative play rating down. Despite that rating, the AFC West is a distinct second.
3. NFC SOUTH
Carolina Panthers Div. Winner Win Total=12
New Orleans Saints Intra-Divisional Parity=3.25
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Relative Play Quality=4.5
Atlanta Falcons Level of Competitiveness=3.75
Playoff Teams=2
TOTAL: 25.5
The NFC South is a very top heavy division, but Atlanta’s past successes and their strength at the quarterback position keep their parity relatively high. Tampa Bay is a tough out and seem to field competitive squads despite their instability offensively.
4. AFC NORTH
Cincinnati Bengals Div. Winner Win Total=11
Pittsburgh Steelers Intra-Divisional Parity=3.5
Baltimore Ravens Relative Play Quality=3
Cleveland Browns Level of Competitiveness=4
Playoff Teams=1
TOTAL:22.5
The AFC North is widely touted as one of the league’s most fierce divisions because of the brutal rivalries across the division that hallmarked a bygone era. The cross divisional defensive strength is unmatched; Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cincinnati and Cleveland consistently find themselves at the top of the league defensively.
5. NFC NORTH
Green Bay Packers Div. Winner Win Total=8
Chicago Bears Intra-Divisional Parity=4.25
Detroit Lions Relative Play Quality=4
Minnesota Vikings Level of Competitiveness=4.25
Playoff Teams=1
TOTAL:22
While Green Bay highlights this group, the inconsistencies of Chicago and Detroit coupled with the low win total of the division winner last year drove the rating down. Minnesota is still seeking an answer at quarterback.
6. AFC EAST
New England Patriots Div. Winner Win Total=12
New York Jets Intra-Divisional Parity=2
Miami Dolphins Relative Play Quality=2.5
Buffalo Bills Level of Competitiveness=4
Playoff Teams=1
TOTAL:21.5
The AFC East, while unequivocally lopsided, is a very competitive division. Buffalo, Miami and the Jets all have stingy, frustrating defenses that keep them in virtually all of their games.
7. NFC EAST
Philadelphia Eagles Div. Winner Win Total=10
Dallas Cowboys Intra-Divisional Parity=3.75
New York Giants Relative Play Quality=3.25
Washington Redskins Level of Competitiveness=2.75
Playoff Teams=1
TOTAL:20.75
Last year hurt the perception of the NFC East dramatically. Philadelphia played very well under Kelly’s new system but otherwise Dallas, New York and Washington inconsistent, injury plagued and at times out of football games. Dallas had a respectable season but once again (though not at full strength) failed to deliver when it mattered most for a playoff bid. The Giants and Washington plan to be more formidable this year than last, but unless the Giants win the turnover battle and Washington becomes more efficient with the football, both squads will find it difficult to break .500.
8. AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis Colts Div. Winner Win Total=11
Tennessee Titans Intra-Divisional Parity=2.25
Jacksonville Jaguars Relative Play Quality=1
Houston Texans Level of Competitiveness=1.75
Playoff Teams=1
TOTAL:17
The Texans’ poor season in 2013-14 proved how weak this division can be. Tennessee is a very competitive squad but are still young and trying to understand the quarterback situation. Luck and the Colts were the division winners last year and were by far the division’s most respectable bunch. Jacksonville, while figuring to improve with Gus Bradley implementing his system in his early years in the organization and Bortles in the mix, there are too many question marks to pencil them in as a threat. Unless the Titans make a leap to playoff contention, this division will likely remain in the cellar.